Las Vegas Update Oct 9th

So I’ve been in town for a couple of days now.  I arrived monday night and picked up a cheap rental Yaris for $8 per day before fees/insurance/taxes.  I also got a $12 per day (before $14 per day in “resort fee”) at Texas Station.  Its funny that Texas Station can charge a “resort fee”. Oh well.  My budget is $50 per day max room and food.  So far, so good, but it will be a lot easier in November and December as hotel rates drop to rock bottom levels and many hotels are giving their rooms away for free.  I’ll probably also get a bunch of room offers as my time down here progresses.

One of my main goals is to figure out how to beat the sports books using technical analysis.  I use “fundamental analysis” and “technical analysis” in the way they are used in investment analysis.  Fundamental analysis would involve researching the relative strength of the teams, and applying a formula or handicapping method to determine the likelihood of a team winning, the point spread being covered, etc. Technical analysis would involve researching price action.

Technical analysis – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fundamental analysis

I scratch my head a lot when I listen to fundamental analysis of sports betting, since its one thing to figure out who will win the game, but another thing to find the right price.  There seems to be too little discussion of the price of sports bets and too much time focused on who will win and why. I noticed in Vegas that some sports bets are just outright TERRIBLE!!!  Take most golf bets at most sports books, the odds offered about about HALF of what they are quoted on an exchange such as Betfair.  Anyone who is betting golf thru Vegas sports books must be completely clueless.

I completely forget about fundamental analysis when making my bets in Vegas. I only look at the price trends, and I use spreadsheets and data collection methods to determine good prices.  I look for arbitrage opportunities where sports books mis-price their offers.

Most sports betters seem to use fundamental analysis in order to try and beat the house.  The problem I have with this approach is that its usually not clear until the very long run whether a better has an edge or whether they are just getting lucky. My arbitrage bets yield about 1% to 5% per trade, but my market risk is eliminated. I do have some execution risk and other risk management challenges, but I’m not betting on who will win or lose, I’m betting on relative value.

ff_winners_f

RiskingTime

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *