Deribit is a crypto-derivatives site featuring bitcoin futures and bitcoin options. Its a pretty cool site that offers some unique features unavailable to retail users in fiat economies. From a retail user’s perspective, being able to enter limit orders based on either the bitcoin value or the implied volatility value is a cool boost. When users enter an order based on an implied volatility number, the exchange automatically refreshes the order each 6 seconds based on the current variables. This way, a retail trader can enter an order that adjusts to the current market based on a fixed implied volatility number. This is something that most retail brokers in fiat economies do not offer. This type of functionality is obviously available to anyone accessing fiat exchanges using APIs: they simply need to write these crons into their own programs.
I’ve been a fan of trading tail risks ever since the days of InTrade when I wrote the tail risks on economic numbers each night for over a year and never had a losing trade. Its well documented today, with the popularity of behavioural economics over the past few decades, that the untrained human brain makes inaccurate estimates of long shots, and a small mis-estimate for a long shot can translate into a lot of missing/added value when the statistics don’t support such prices. For example, casinos are able to get a bigger house edge for long shot bets compared to even money bets. Consider the high house edge for most land based keno — which is pure long shots — compared to the low house edge for baccarat, the core game of which is close to even money.
Let’s apply the idea that we don’t estimate tail risks accurately to look for ways to profit on Deribit.
Deribit lists serial expirations on monthly and weekly bitcoin options. As time goes by, and expirations get closer, many of the “deep out of the money” strike prices lose liquidity because the minimum tick value is greater than the theoretical value of these tail risks. These deep out of the money strikes will go “no bid” once their theoretical value is less than the minimum tick. This is where the opportunity to profit can be found. I’ve noticed that what I’m assuming are manual order entry retail users with bids posted in the deep out of the money strikes where the theoretical price is lower than the single tick value. I assume that these users entered limit orders without expiration dates and didn’t cancel those orders as the particular strike went “no bid”. Another explanation is a user is short a particular deep out of the money strike and rather than waiting till expiration, the user is willing to pay an above market rate to close out the worthless position in order to free up margin or clean their position book. Whatever the reason, these bids are “pennies from heaven” for the savvy trader.
See the screen shot below that shows the bid on a worthless option at 0.0002 btc. The theoretical value of this option is actually worth less than the minimum tick of 0.0001 btc. A word of warning for those thinking of playing the tail risks: make them covered and remember the old saying about picking up pennies in front of a slow moving steam roller. Most of the time you’ll be able to take the penny, but there is a long-shot chance that you get called away or put in, so you need to either have the capital or enough liquidity to cover (either buying back or hedging). The nice thing about Deribit options is they are settled based on a futures contract that is liquid on the same exchange.
Canadians have a few choices when it comes to buying bitcoins in Canada. One of the methods involves using Flexpin vouchers to exchange for bitcoins using services such as Bitaccess. Check out this post about my experience using Flexpin vouchers to buy bitcoins in Canada.
I’d say the best way for Canadians to buy bitcoins is to use QuadrigaCX, which is a cryptocurrency exchange based in Vancouver. The challenge with using QuadrigaCX is many Canadians have trouble with (and/or hate to deal with) compliance. If you want full access to QuadrigaCX deposit and withdrawal methods, then you should follow all the Canadian AML rules by verifying your account. Check out this post for my tips on how to verify your QuadrigaCX account.
What’s causing the price of bitcoins to rise so dramatically? I get asked this question many times a day from friends and colleagues wondering what’s driving the price of bitcoins. My favourite response is the old trader’s adage, “more buyers than sellers”. Even though this response is a joke, the basic fundamentals are true (I guess that’s what makes it an “adage”). The reason why the bitcoin price is rising is because there are a lot more buyers than sellers. An increasing number of people around the world are buying bitcoins, and by most back of the napkin estimates, only a small fraction of the world’s population has any bitcoin yet, so we might be only scratching the surface of the bitcoin price rise.
I think its only a matter of time until a wave of new crypto currency users come from countries with failed governments. There are lots of examples of this happening already such as the number of luxury goods shops accepting bitcoin in popular tourist destinations in France and Switzerland, they are being used by the elite from African and middle eastern countries. There are more than 1 billion people living in India and their governments are ineffective and wasteful, they are subject to wild banking laws and black markets make up such a large part of the Indian economy, it only makes sense that many people in India will move away from using their government currency and use crypto currencies instead. The government will have to spend a lot of resources and restrict the freedoms of citizens to access the internet in order to try and stop this trend.
Where could the price of bitcoin go? Anywhere the market decides. Nobody is in control of the bitcoin price, and this is part of its appeal. If the bitcoin blockchain cannot provide value to users, its market price will eventually fall, maybe it will crash, but whether its bitcoin or some of the many other crypto currencies, the idea of blockchains has been discovered, and this cannot be unlearned.
Those of us with bitcoins should be less concerned about whether the price rises or falls, and more concerned about what governments will do about it. As the crypto economies grow, they will erode the power of governments to tax residents who do not disclose their crypto income/assets. And there will be increasing arms race between the most sophisticated members of rich countries and their own governments who try to tax their crypto currency profits.
Today the CME announced bitcoin futures trading will begin on December 18th, 2017. This is very exciting news for crypto market participants. Trading in bitcoin futures on a CFTC regulated exchange will move bitcoin closer to the mainstream, add practically unlimited liquidity, and provide bitcoin holders with a way to hedge their bitcoin price exposure to the USD fiat economy.
The CME bitcoin futures contracts will be cash settled based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR), which aggregates bitcoin trading activity across several spot exchanges between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. London time each day. The contract size will be 5 bitcoins, which considering the current price of $10,000 BTC/USD, the notional value of each contract might be around $50,000. This contract size is probably too big for the average retail trader, but good enough for the rest of us.
CME Group plans to launch Bitcoin futures contracts on December 18, 2017, pending regulatory review and certification. CME Bitcoin futures are based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR), which aggregates bitcoin trading activity across major bitcoin spot exchanges between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. London time.
CME, Cboe allowed to proceed after pledges to regulators CFTC says venues will help U.S. surveil bitcoin’s spot market CME Group Inc. and Cboe Global Markets Inc. are poised to offer bitcoin futures contracts, easing the way for mainstream investors to bet big while dragging regulators into a realm skeptics call a fad and fraud.
It’s been a few days since Bitfinex listed Euro trading, so we now have some more data to work with. Even though the Bitfinex USD market is based on tether, and fiat deposits/withdrawals will remain severely restricted, the USD market is still much larger than the Euro market. At the time of writing, the current bid/offer for borrowing/lending Euros on Bitfinex is 0.012% to 0.0243% per day. There is 13,000 bid and 140 offered, so the Euro lending/borrowing market is wide and illiquid. This presents some interesting challenges and opportunities. For those of us capable of making a market (either manually or using bots) the wide spread is not such a big deal, at least as long as our volume doesn’t overwhelm the market. For my purposes, I’d put up to 10,000 Euros into this market before I’d start to worry that I can’t get the money out to lenders frequently enough to earn a liquid rate. But it’s a double edged sword, a choice of risk to reward, about whether to get the money out to borrowers or to try and catch a sucker rate.
I’ve also noticed that the volume offered in the Euro lending book on Bitfinex is kinked. There is only about 360,000 Euros offered up to 0.08% per day (from a market of 0.025% per day) and then there is an additional 10,000,000 Euros offered at 0.083% per day. So someone must think this money gets taken at this rate at some chance that they are willing to let the cash sit on the exchange (with all those associated risks) until this time. Not my style of trading (I hate dead money), but it helps us get a sense of the possible outcomes (and the ceiling on rates).
A quick glance at the loan book total outstanding shows the USD amount at 461,787,500.86 and the Euro 190,431.82, so the Euro market on Bitfinex has a long way to go in order to catch up to the USD volume.