I really enjoy the Masters. And I also enjoy betting on the Masters. Below are my 2019 Masters bets. I don’t do much fundamental analysis to determine my bets. I don’t attempt to handicap the players chances of winning. I simply rely on technical analysis.
This year I’m considering the difference in the odds between exchanges such as Betfair and sports books where I have an account. I notice that the odds of favourites on Betfair is close to their price at most sports books, but the odds of players with slim chances of winning are much lower on sports books than on betting exchanges. For example, at the time of writing, the odds for Rory McIlroy is 8.6 on Betfair and is between 8 and 9 on most sports books. But the odds of Kevin Tway, who is one of the least likely active tour players is 950 on Betfair but only about 300 on most sports books. Ian Woosnam seems like the least likely player to win the Masters this week, and interestingly his odds on Betair are 950 (which is the practically highest price Betfair will post) and his odds on many sports books are about 3000.
These odds make sense to me because they follow the principal of short paying the longest odds. Sports books and casinos in general frequently make their profits by short paying the biggest payoffs. Its more difficult for gamblers to intuitively estimate the odds of less frequent events, and there is also a psychological element attached to gamblers who win a long shot and quickly forget to examine the true odds of their wager.
So it looks like the players in the second tier of golfers at this year’s Masters have the best value if you’re betting on a mainstream sports books. Here are my three value picks at these prices on Tuesday afternoon.
Paul Casey @ 31
Hideki Matsuyama @ 34
Xander Schauffele @ 46
Some other interesting bets. Top Canadian? Conners/Weir 1.22/4.00. I would choose Conners at that price. Based on Weir’s recent Masters records, and the fact that he hasn’t really made a mark on the PGA Tour in a few years, and Corey Conners is a second time Masters starter and just coming off his win, and Conners is a the prime of his career. I think its also likely both Conners and Weir miss the cut, but I still think its very likely Conners gets a lower score.
Best German? Kaymer/Langer 1.77/2.00. This is a funny bet since Kaymer is a regular tour player but hasn’t had much success lately, whereas Langer is the best senior player on the planet. I think giving the edge to Kaymer is fair since Langer will have a tougher time with distance and number of holes down the stretch. Remember that Champions Tour events are only 3 rounds and the courses are much shorter than PGA Tour.
