Gearing up for DFS hockey season

Starting with the 2018/19 NHL season, I’ll be posting my experience playing daily fantasy sports (DFS) on this blog. I’m planning on playing both NHL fantasy and PGA fantasy and I’ll be playing on multiple sites in order to compare my experience. I’ve only ever played fantasy sports casually as a fan and sometimes with friends, but this season my goal is to try to find an edge and look for ways to win. I’m not sure if this is even possible, especially considering the rake and competition, but I’m going to try.

I’m not sure yet how big my stakes will be and which sites I’ll be playing on specifically, but I’m sure I’ll try the biggest sites such as Draftkings & FanDuel, and I’m also hoping to learn more the smaller sites such as StarsDraft & FantasyDraft. I’m also going to compare and combine DFS with sports betting, and I’m also planning to investigate the legal side of DFS and sports betting.

Wish me luck. If anyone has promo codes to share or strategies to suggest, please add your comments below.

Toronto Maple Leafs First Round Odds

Friends of mine have made a bitcoin fantasy sports website called CoinRoster and there are a lot of opportunities for a sharp sports bettor to make profits. The challenge is their site doesn’t have that much liquidity, but over time I hope they can gain more traction.

CoinRoster posted a pari-mutuel pool on how many games the Toronto Maple Leafs will win in their first round series against the Washington Capitals. The way I began determining the odds was to consult the series betting odds at William Hill. I see the Caps are 1.25 to win the series against the leafs. These odds imply a % chance of 80% (1/1.25). This means there is a 20% chance of the Leafs winning the series, and expressed as a decimal, these odds are 5.00.

With this information in mind, I looked at the market at CoinRoster for how many games the Leafs will win the first round. I noticed that the odds for 4 games (which would mean the Leafs win the series) was currently 57.00. The sum of any other number of games (zero, one, two, and three) should also be the inverse of the odds to win four games (since the Leafs will either win or lose the series) and we already know this number (according to William Hill) should be about 1.25 (80% chance).

So if the current pool is 0.00836 btc, then 0.001672 btc should be bet on four games and the balance should be divided between the other four options (zero, one, two, three). Obviously, the market doesn’t think the Leafs will win the first round.