Last night I lost again, I still have not won anything on FanDuel, but I feel like I’m making progress. Last night each one of my players earned fantasy points. I also feel like my process is beginning to take shape.
On the goalie side, my goalie last night booked a win for his real life team, so that earned my fantasy team an extra 12 points. My goal recently was to have my goalie at least get this 12 point bonus, and the strategy to achieve this so far I believe is to draft a goalie from a team most likely to win their game, based on the sports book odds. But what was interesting last night is although my goalie won his real life game, the opposing goalie actually scored about the same number of fantasy points since the opposing goalie made about twice as many saves. So I’ve learned that winning the game is only one part of the best goalie score, your goalie also has to also make a lot of saves, which basically means they must face a lot of shots. This leads me to want to also pick a goalie when their opposing team is likely to have a lot of shots on goal.
Click here to view an ESPN page that lists shots on goal stats.
So tonight, the teams most likely to win are: Bruins, Habs, Pens, and Preds. The Pens are playing the Flyers, which are likely to shoot an average number of times. So I’m drafting my goalie from the Pens starter.
I’m no longer going to place any hedge bets, the basis is too much and I can’t be bothered to calculate the right amount, and I’m paying implied vig whenever I place a bet anyway.
I’ve automated some of the spreadsheet work that goes into creating my lineup, basically I’ve written a few macros. I’ll post my spreadsheet to future posts once I clean it up a bit.
This is my strategy right now:
- pick a starting goalie from a team likely to win
- pick a starting goalie from a team likely to face a lot of shots
- list three games with the highest chances of going over the most goals, and restrict my players to those games
- download the players list from FanDuel into excel
- remove/hide the columns for ID, first name, last name, and the column for each individual team
- make data a table
- remove all injured players
- create new column to calculate price/FPPG
- calculate and sort by price/FPPG
- calculate the average games played, and remove all players with less than average
- draft players starting from lowest price/FGGP until a team can be drafted
- filter out any players with less than 70% of the average salary remaining after drafting a goalie
- skip players after you’ve filled their position
- for the final pick, skip all players whose price is higher than what’s left to draft
My results after last 1 entries:
DraftKings 0
FanDuel -$1.00
Hedging -$1.00
Total -$2.00
Overall:
DraftKings +$0.80
FanDuel -$7.00
Hedging +$1.11
Total -$5.09
