Comparing CoinRoster Prices to Market Odds

This post is about trying to beat the odds on CoinRoster daily fantasy golf, a game where the fantasy points are determined based on score to par. The worst score to par becomes zero and each fantasy point is awarded based on the difference from the worst score. For example, if the last placed player has a real world score to par of +4 and the first placed player has a score to par of -10, then the first placed player will have 14 fantasy points. All other players are assigned a relative point value.  Six players are drafted to each roster, so the total score of each roster is the sum of the individual scores of all players on each roster.

My goal is to find some drafting strategies that take advantage of the difference between the price of golfers available to draft on CoinRoster versus the odds of betting on golfers to win the tournament.

The price of each player in the CoinRoster draft is relative to their world golf ranking. But I wondered how to determine whether this is a good price or a bad one? And which factors should I consider while attempting to make this determination?

I have compared the prices of the players available to draft with their odds of winning the tournament. I know from previous research that the odds of each player is related to their expected relative score to par.

I made a list of all players available to draft using excel with their associated price on CoinRoster, then I calculated the percentage chance implied by the prices of each players in the draft by taking their drafting price divided by the sum of all player prices. So if a player costs $3000 to draft and the sum of all players prices is $80,000, then this implies 3.75% ($3,000 / $80,000).

By finding this drafting price ratio, it gives me an “implied” percentage chance of each player having the most fantasy points based on CoinRoster’s drafting price. Then for curiosity’s sake, I converted those implied percentage numbers into decimal odds. The next thing I did was add a column of each player’s odds of winning the tournament and then I converted that into a percentage number also. Now I can compare apples to apples using their percentage chances.

With this information, I can eyeball and compare the odds numbers and the percentage numbers (which are the same value, but just displayed in different formats). I can also rank and sort the data in various ways using excel, so I subtracted the implied market percentage chance from the implied price percentage chance to uncover the difference between the two numbers.

By subtracting the two prices (the percentage chance implied by drafting price with the percentage chance implied in the player’s betting odds) I can notice if the price for a player available to draft is relatively lower on CoinRoster than is implied by their market odds. If the player is cheap and represents good value to draft their price on CoinRoster will be lower than implied by their betting odds. This means the player is cheap to draft, but if a player’s market odds are lower than their relative drafting price on CoinRoster, the player is expensive.

The table below shows the numbers for the BMW Championship. The table is ranked best to worst value.  Dustin Johnson has the best value for this tournament according to this formula. His odds were 9.36 (which implies a more than 10% chance he will win the tournament, and thereby have the best score to par) but his CoinRoster price was relatively cheap (even though he is the second highest priced player). Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy, and Hideki Matsuyama are also some of the most relatively best priced players.

Tiger Woods also has the third highest relative value to draft. This makes sense since Tiger’s world golf ranking (which the CoinRoster drafting price is based on) is relatively low compared to his chances of winning the tournament. So intuitively, this affirms my belief that I’m on the right track.

Some of the most expensive players on CoinRoster are Tyrrell Hatton, Alex Noren, Brian Harman, Kevin Kisner, and Peter Uihlein.

CoinRoster Price Implied % Implied Odds Market Odds Market % Diff % Cost
Dustin Johnson USA $2,839 0.0364 27 9.36 0.1068 -0.0705 $9,410
Justin Rose ENG $2,366 0.0303 33 15.70 0.0637 -0.0334 $8,368
Tiger Woods USA $979 0.0125 80 24.00 0.0417 -0.0291 $8,060
Rory McIlroy NIR $1,854 0.0238 42 19.00 0.0526 -0.0289 $9,769
Hideki Matsuyama JPN $1,372 0.0176 57 22.00 0.0455 -0.0279 $10,915
Bryson DeChambeau USA $1,797 0.0230 43 20.00 0.0500 -0.0270 $10,995
Jordan Spieth USA $2,058 0.0264 38 19.00 0.0526 -0.0263 $10,794
Brooks Koepka USA $2,688 0.0344 29 18.10 0.0552 -0.0208 $9,548
Justin Thomas USA $3,000 0.0384 26 17.60 0.0568 -0.0184 $7,905
Tony Finau USA $1,452 0.0186 54 32.00 0.0313 -0.0126 $5,840
Jason Day AUS $1,596 0.0204 49 32.00 0.0313 -0.0108 $5,068
Adam Scott AUS $812 0.0104 96 48.00 0.0208 -0.0104 $5,377
Patrick Cantlay USA $1,045 0.0134 75 48.00 0.0208 -0.0074 $5,254
Cameron Smith AUS $935 0.0120 83 57.00 0.0175 -0.0056 $5,010
Brandt Snedeker USA $680 0.0087 115 76.00 0.0132 -0.0044 $6,305
Rickie Fowler USA $1,905 0.0244 41 36.00 0.0278 -0.0034 $7,128
Emiliano Grillo ARG $689 0.0088 113 86.00 0.0116 -0.0028 $6,426
C.T. Pan TPE $801 0.0103 97 86.00 0.0116 -0.0014 $6,418
Jon Rahm ESP $2,230 0.0286 35 34.00 0.0294 -0.0008 $6,776
Bubba Watson USA $1,503 0.0193 52 52.00 0.0192 0.0000 $5,441
Phil Mickelson USA $1,203 0.0154 65 67.00 0.0149 0.0005 $5,889
Billy Horschel USA $681 0.0087 115 124.00 0.0081 0.0007 $5,417
Henrik Stenson SWE $1,159 0.0148 67 71.00 0.0141 0.0008 $4,963
Gary Woodland USA $895 0.0115 87 95.00 0.0105 0.0009 $4,210
Tommy Fleetwood ENG $1,951 0.0250 40 42.00 0.0238 0.0012 $3,880
Aaron Wise USA $731 0.0094 107 124.00 0.0081 0.0013 $2,691
Scott Piercy USA $227 0.0029 344 722.00 0.0014 0.0015 $2,810
Chris Kirk USA $406 0.0052 192 276.00 0.0036 0.0016 $3,978
Beau Hossler USA $565 0.0072 138 181.00 0.0055 0.0017 $4,269
Zach Johnson USA $762 0.0098 102 133.00 0.0075 0.0022 $5,207
Louis Oosthuizen RSA $850 0.0109 92 124.00 0.0081 0.0028 $4,835
Marc Leishman AUS $1,395 0.0179 56 67.00 0.0149 0.0029 $4,387
Abraham Ancer MEX $697 0.0089 112 171.00 0.0058 0.0031 $3,448
Webb Simpson USA $1,503 0.0193 52 62.00 0.0161 0.0031 $3,436
Ryan Palmer USA $390 0.0050 200 637.00 0.0016 0.0034 $2,399
J.J. Spaun USA $402 0.0051 194 589.00 0.0017 0.0035 $2,496
Jason Kokrak USA $456 0.0058 171 428.00 0.0023 0.0035 $3,531
Keegan Bradley USA $685 0.0088 114 200.00 0.0050 0.0038 $3,544
Brian Gay USA $466 0.0060 168 532.00 0.0019 0.0041 $4,034
Austin Cook USA $487 0.0062 160 475.00 0.0021 0.0041 $4,078
Paul Casey ENG $1,437 0.0184 54 71.00 0.0141 0.0043 $4,322
Ryan Armour USA $469 0.0060 166 646.00 0.0015 0.0045 $3,725
Rafa Cabrera Bello ESP $1,175 0.0151 66 95.00 0.0105 0.0045 $3,863
Andrew Putnam USA $510 0.0065 153 504.00 0.0020 0.0045 $3,466
Adam Hadwin CAN $731 0.0094 107 209.00 0.0048 0.0046 $3,715
Byeong Hun An KOR $840 0.0108 93 162.00 0.0062 0.0046 $5,258
Charles Howell III USA $607 0.0078 129 323.00 0.0031 0.0047 $4,986
Luke List USA $778 0.0100 100 190.00 0.0053 0.0047 $4,898
Si Woo Kim KOR $759 0.0097 103 209.00 0.0048 0.0049 $4,671
Francesco Molinari ITA $2,274 0.0291 34 42.00 0.0238 0.0053 $4,537
Andrew Landry USA $568 0.0073 137 551.00 0.0018 0.0055 $2,823
Jr. Potter USA $519 0.0066 150 893.00 0.0011 0.0055 $3,463
Brendan Steele USA $551 0.0071 142 675.00 0.0015 0.0056 $3,593
Keith Mitchell USA $625 0.0080 125 428.00 0.0023 0.0057 $3,691
Patton Kizzire USA $560 0.0072 139 808.00 0.0012 0.0059 $4,175
Kyle Stanley USA $1,208 0.0155 65 105.00 0.0095 0.0060 $4,514
Chesson Hadley USA $649 0.0083 120 428.00 0.0023 0.0060 $4,047
Brice Garnett USA $649 0.0083 120 561.00 0.0018 0.0065 $5,113
Ian Poulter ENG $1,109 0.0142 70 133.00 0.0075 0.0067 $5,284
Kevin Na USA $899 0.0115 87 228.00 0.0044 0.0071 $5,017
Chez Reavie USA $741 0.0095 105 475.00 0.0021 0.0074 $5,532
Patrick Reed USA $1,715 0.0220 46 71.00 0.0141 0.0079 $5,928
Pat Perez USA $820 0.0105 95 428.00 0.0023 0.0082 $5,436
Daniel Berger USA $842 0.0108 93 428.00 0.0023 0.0084 $5,661
Xander Schauffele USA $1,414 0.0181 55 114.00 0.0088 0.0093 $6,399
Peter Uihlein USA $1,137 0.0146 69 219.00 0.0046 0.0100 $7,100
Kevin Kisner USA $1,223 0.0157 64 181.00 0.0055 0.0101 $5,963
Brian Harman USA $1,045 0.0134 75 361.00 0.0028 0.0106 $82,801
Alex Noren SWE $1,580 0.0202 49 114.00 0.0088 0.0115 $81,756
Tyrrell Hatton ENG $2,115 0.0271 37 67.00 0.0149 0.0122 $80,176
$78,061 1.0000